# Baidoa: Renewed Fighting, Displacement, and Forecast Flooding

- Canonical dossier: [Web edition](<https://totallyfine.foundation/crisis/baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026/>)

- Markdown edition: [Plain-text edition](<https://totallyfine.foundation/crisis/baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026/index.md>)

- Issue: Issue 012

- Rubric: Baidoa / armed conflict / hunger

- Byline: Totally Fine Foundation editorial desk

- Reading time: 9 min

- Last reviewed: 2026-10-30

> Federal forces took Baidoa on 30 March 2026; since 17 August, clashes with Laftagareen loyalists have damaged a hospital and displaced thousands. According to the latest IPC analysis, nearly 26,000 displaced people in Baidoa are projected to face Catastrophic hunger in the October-December projection period.

## Cover

- Kicker: Field dossier / sub-Saharan Africa / conflict and food insecurity

- Cover lines: Federal forces took Baidoa on 30 March 2026; clashes with Laftagareen loyalists began on 17 August. / Baidoa District Hospital severely damaged; a health worker killed. / According to ACLED, opposition forces loyal to Laftagareen captured Buur Hakaba and took more than 200 soldiers prisoner. / Thousands displaced, many of them previously displaced. / According to the latest IPC analysis, nearly 26,000 displaced people in Baidoa projected to face Catastrophic hunger. / El Niño forecast to bring heavy rains and flooding to a drought-hit Somalia.

#### Hero visual provenance

- Caption: File photograph by AMISOM Public Information showing food distribution in Beletweyne, Somalia, in 2016.

- Alt text: Food distribution in Beletweyne, Somalia, in 2016.

- Credit: AMISOM Public Information

- Rights / license: CC0

- Asset: [View image](<https://totallyfine.foundation/visuals/dossiers/baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026/hero-baidoa-renewed-fighting--2026.jpg>)

- Original / provenance: [Open source](<https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2016_29_Beletweyne_Food_Distribution-3_(26726088633).jpg>)

## Metrics

### 1.6 million people — Estimated population of Baidoa

- Category: population

- Caveat: Estimate by SOS Children's Villages International as of 2026-10-29; does not include a verified census or disaggregation beyond the statement that nearly half were internally displaced.

**Source trail:** [reliefweb.int — SOS Children's Villages reports on Baidoa's triple crisis](<https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/baidoas-triple-crisis-conflict-drought-and-threat-el-nino>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-reliefweb-int`)

### more than 1,800 civilians — Civilians displaced by renewed clashes

- Category: displacement

- Caveat: UNHCR Flash #24, publication date not specified, for renewed clashes in Baidoa; the report's title cites more than 1,800 civilians, while its text cites about 934 households (an estimated 5,604 individuals) fleeing the Wadajir and Berdale neighbourhoods; does not cover all displacement since the 2026-08-17 escalation or earlier displacement.

**Source trail:** [data.unhcr.org — UNHCR flash report: two Baidoa hospitals reportedly record 11 deaths and 86 injuries, and 934 households reportedly flee](<https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/124371>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-data-unhcr-org`)

### 71 wounded people — Wounded received at Bay Regional hospital on 17 August

- Category: casualties

- Caveat: MSF statement dated 2026-08-17; covers only patients received at Bay Regional hospital, not all casualties across Baidoa.

**Source trail:** [prezly.msf.org.uk — MSF statement: 71 wounded arrive at Bay Regional Hospital after Baidoa clashes](<https://prezly.msf.org.uk/statement-clashes-in-baidoa-and-wounded-arriving-at-msf-supported-hospital>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-prezly-msf-org-uk`)

### 4 deaths, including one young woman — Deaths recorded at Bay Regional hospital on 17 August

- Category: casualties

- Caveat: MSF statement dated 2026-08-17; covers only deaths recorded at Bay Regional hospital, not all conflict deaths.

**Source trail:** [prezly.msf.org.uk — MSF statement: 71 wounded arrive at Bay Regional Hospital after Baidoa clashes](<https://prezly.msf.org.uk/statement-clashes-in-baidoa-and-wounded-arriving-at-msf-supported-hospital>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-prezly-msf-org-uk`)

### 11 deaths and 86 injuries — Casualties recorded by two Baidoa hospitals

- Category: casualties

- Caveat: UNHCR Flash #24, undated, reports Bay Regional Hospital and Bayhaw Hospital reportedly recorded these figures; the figures cover only these two hospitals and are reported, not complete.

**Source trail:** [data.unhcr.org — UNHCR flash report: two Baidoa hospitals reportedly record 11 deaths and 86 injuries, and 934 households reportedly flee](<https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/124371>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-data-unhcr-org`)

### 4.4 million people — People facing high acute food insecurity in Somalia

- Category: food insecurity

- Caveat: OCHA 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan; national figure for October-December 2024, for acute food insecurity at IPC Phase 3 and Phase 4, not specific to Baidoa and predating the 2026 fighting.

**Source trail:** [unocha.org — OCHA Somalia 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan](<https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/somalia/somalia-2025-humanitarian-needs-and-response-plan-hnrp>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-unocha-org-2`)

## Baidoa: Repeated Fighting, a Damaged Hospital, and a Hunger Projection

### From the March takeover to renewed fighting

Baidoa is the capital of Bay region and the interim capital of South West State, Somalia. Somali federal forces took control of the city on 30 March 2026, and South West State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen resigned or was ousted.

Armed clashes erupted in and around Baidoa on 17 August 2026 between federal forces and fighters loyal to former South West State President Laftagareen. Laftagareen-aligned forces attacked Baidoa on 3 September 2026, triggering clashes with federal and South West State forces; the government said the attack was repelled.

Fighting reportedly erupted in and around Baidoa on 28 September 2026, the third outbreak since 17 August. According to ACLED, opposition forces loyal to Laftagareen captured Buur Hakaba on 15 October and took more than 200 soldiers prisoner. Laftagareen-loyal forces reportedly clashed again with federal soldiers near the outskirts of Baidoa on 26 October 2026.

**Source trail:** [crisisgroup.org — Crisis Group Analyst's Notebook on the Ouster of Southwest State's Leader](<https://www.crisisgroup.org/anb/africa/somalia/somali-government-topples-state-leader-electoral-dispute-escalates>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-crisisgroup-org`); [prezly.msf.org.uk — MSF statement: 71 wounded arrive at Bay Regional Hospital after Baidoa clashes](<https://prezly.msf.org.uk/statement-clashes-in-baidoa-and-wounded-arriving-at-msf-supported-hospital>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-prezly-msf-org-uk`); [reliefweb.int — SOS Children's Villages reports on Baidoa's triple crisis](<https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/baidoas-triple-crisis-conflict-drought-and-threat-el-nino>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-reliefweb-int`); [acleddata.com — ACLED maps the contest for Somalia's South West state](<https://acleddata.com/expert-comment/whats-behind-somalias-territorial-control-grapple>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-acleddata-com`)

### Competing accounts: deaths, airstrikes, and Al-Shabaab

According to the defence ministry, troops killed about 30 attackers in Baidoa on 17 August 2026. According to Somali army commander Abdullahi Hassan, two of his soldiers were killed in the clashes near Baidoa on 26 October 2026.

Airstrikes were reported during the Baidoa clashes. The Laftagareen camp attributes them to Turkish aircraft; that attribution is unverified.

Al-Shabaab participation in the attacks on Baidoa alongside Laftagareen-aligned forces is disputed. Some accounts allege such participation, while other reporting does not confirm it.

**Source trail:** [apnews.com — AP News: Fighting erupts in southwestern Somalia between government and militias](<https://apnews.com/article/somalia-baidoa-shabab-clashes-e9b1c90531fe74768a3dd3378ec55d1d>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-apnews-com`); [reliefweb.int — SOS Children's Villages reports on Baidoa's triple crisis](<https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/baidoas-triple-crisis-conflict-drought-and-threat-el-nino>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-reliefweb-int`); [geeskafreedomcentre.org — Geeska Freedom Centre Statement on Third Round of Fighting in Baidoa](<https://geeskafreedomcentre.org/en/baidoa-all-parties-must-protect-civilians-and-health-care-workers-as-third-round-of-fighting-hits-city/>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-geeskafreedomcentre-org`)

### Hospital damage and displacement

Baidoa District Hospital, which is supported by SOS Children's Villages, was severely damaged in the fighting, and a health worker was killed.

The renewed clashes displaced thousands of civilians, many of them previously displaced, from their homes in Baidoa to the outskirts, neighbouring districts and Mogadishu.

Roughly half of Baidoa's population is internally displaced, according to SOS Children's Villages (29 October 2026), which estimates the city's population at 1.6 million. Save the Children cites about 800,000 displaced people (undated). According to SOS Children's Villages International, Baidoa hosts Somalia's second-largest concentration of internally displaced persons, behind only Mogadishu.

**Source trail:** [unicef.org — UNICEF statement: Children killed and injured in Baidoa clashes](<https://www.unicef.org/somalia/press-releases/statement>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-unicef-org`); [data.unhcr.org — UNHCR flash report: two Baidoa hospitals reportedly record 11 deaths and 86 injuries, and 934 households reportedly flee](<https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/124371>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-data-unhcr-org`); [reliefweb.int — SOS Children's Villages reports on Baidoa's triple crisis](<https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/baidoas-triple-crisis-conflict-drought-and-threat-el-nino>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-reliefweb-int`); [apnews.com — AP News: Fighting erupts in southwestern Somalia between government and militias](<https://apnews.com/article/somalia-baidoa-shabab-clashes-e9b1c90531fe74768a3dd3378ec55d1d>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-apnews-com`)

### Drought, El Niño flooding, and the IPC Phase 5 projection

El Niño-induced heavy rains and flooding were forecast for Somalia in 2026, compounding drought and hunger.

According to the latest IPC analysis, nearly 26,000 displaced people in Baidoa are projected to face Catastrophic (IPC Phase 5) hunger in the October-December projection period.

**Source trail:** [fao.org — FAO warns of a triple threat to Somalia's food security](<https://www.fao.org/somalia/news/details/somalia-faces-a-triple-threat-of-drought--middle-east-conflict-and-predicted-el-ni%C3%B1o-flooding--fao-warns/en>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-fao-org`); [reliefweb.int — SOS Children's Villages reports on Baidoa's triple crisis](<https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/baidoas-triple-crisis-conflict-drought-and-threat-el-nino>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-reliefweb-int`)

### What remains unverified

Reports of fighting on 28 September and 26 October 2026 are rated likely, not confirmed. The combatant death counts come from the parties themselves: the defence ministry's figure of about 30 attackers killed on 17 August, and a Somali army commander's report of two soldiers killed on 26 October.

Airstrikes were reported but the attribution to Turkish aircraft is unverified. Al-Shabaab participation in the attacks is disputed.

**Source trail:** [reliefweb.int — SOS Children's Villages reports on Baidoa's triple crisis](<https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/baidoas-triple-crisis-conflict-drought-and-threat-el-nino>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-reliefweb-int`); [geeskafreedomcentre.org — Geeska Freedom Centre Statement on Third Round of Fighting in Baidoa](<https://geeskafreedomcentre.org/en/baidoa-all-parties-must-protect-civilians-and-health-care-workers-as-third-round-of-fighting-hits-city/>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-geeskafreedomcentre-org`); [apnews.com — AP News: Fighting erupts in southwestern Somalia between government and militias](<https://apnews.com/article/somalia-baidoa-shabab-clashes-e9b1c90531fe74768a3dd3378ec55d1d>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-apnews-com`)

## Actors and positions

### Somali federal forces / federal government

- Role: National armed forces and government

- Confidence: medium

- Position: Took control of Baidoa on 2026-03-30; fought Laftagareen-aligned forces in repeated clashes from August 2026; the government said the 2026-09-03 attack was repelled.

- Supporter framing: No supporter framing documented in the sources reviewed.

- Opposing account: No opposing account documented in the sources reviewed.

- Independent assessment: No independent assessment documented in the sources reviewed.

**Source trail:** [acleddata.com — ACLED maps the contest for Somalia's South West state](<https://acleddata.com/expert-comment/whats-behind-somalias-territorial-control-grapple>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-acleddata-com`); [crisisgroup.org — Crisis Group Analyst's Notebook on the Ouster of Southwest State's Leader](<https://www.crisisgroup.org/anb/africa/somalia/somali-government-topples-state-leader-electoral-dispute-escalates>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-crisisgroup-org`); [apnews.com — AP News: Fighting erupts in southwestern Somalia between government and militias](<https://apnews.com/article/somalia-baidoa-shabab-clashes-e9b1c90531fe74768a3dd3378ec55d1d>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-apnews-com`); [reliefweb.int — SOS Children's Villages reports on Baidoa's triple crisis](<https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/baidoas-triple-crisis-conflict-drought-and-threat-el-nino>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-reliefweb-int`); [geeskafreedomcentre.org — Geeska Freedom Centre Statement on Third Round of Fighting in Baidoa](<https://geeskafreedomcentre.org/en/baidoa-all-parties-must-protect-civilians-and-health-care-workers-as-third-round-of-fighting-hits-city/>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-geeskafreedomcentre-org`)

### Laftagareen-aligned forces / Opposition-SWSPF

- Role: Militia loyal to former South West State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen

- Confidence: medium

- Position: Attacked Baidoa on 2026-09-03; according to ACLED, captured Buur Hakaba on 2026-10-15 and took more than 200 soldiers prisoner; reportedly clashed near Baidoa on 2026-10-26.

- Supporter framing: No supporter framing documented in the sources reviewed.

- Opposing account: The Somali government says the 2026-09-03 attack was repelled, and the defence ministry says troops killed about 30 attackers on 2026-08-17.

- Independent assessment: No independent assessment documented in the sources reviewed.

**Source trail:** [acleddata.com — ACLED maps the contest for Somalia's South West state](<https://acleddata.com/expert-comment/whats-behind-somalias-territorial-control-grapple>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-acleddata-com`); [apnews.com — AP News: Fighting erupts in southwestern Somalia between government and militias](<https://apnews.com/article/somalia-baidoa-shabab-clashes-e9b1c90531fe74768a3dd3378ec55d1d>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-apnews-com`); [reliefweb.int — SOS Children's Villages reports on Baidoa's triple crisis](<https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/baidoas-triple-crisis-conflict-drought-and-threat-el-nino>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-reliefweb-int`); [geeskafreedomcentre.org — Geeska Freedom Centre Statement on Third Round of Fighting in Baidoa](<https://geeskafreedomcentre.org/en/baidoa-all-parties-must-protect-civilians-and-health-care-workers-as-third-round-of-fighting-hits-city/>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-geeskafreedomcentre-org`)

### Baidoa civilians / internally displaced people

- Role: Affected population

- Confidence: medium

- Position: Thousands displaced by renewed clashes, many of them previously displaced; reportedly roughly half of the city's population is internally displaced (SOS Children's Villages estimated the population at 1.6 million on 29 October 2026); a health facility was damaged and a health worker killed.

- Supporter framing: No supporter framing documented in the sources reviewed.

- Opposing account: No opposing account documented in the sources reviewed.

- Independent assessment: No independent assessment documented in the sources reviewed.

**Source trail:** [unicef.org — UNICEF statement: Children killed and injured in Baidoa clashes](<https://www.unicef.org/somalia/press-releases/statement>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-unicef-org`); [geeskafreedomcentre.org — Geeska Freedom Centre Statement on Third Round of Fighting in Baidoa](<https://geeskafreedomcentre.org/en/baidoa-all-parties-must-protect-civilians-and-health-care-workers-as-third-round-of-fighting-hits-city/>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-geeskafreedomcentre-org`); [data.unhcr.org — UNHCR flash report: two Baidoa hospitals reportedly record 11 deaths and 86 injuries, and 934 households reportedly flee](<https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/124371>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-data-unhcr-org`); [reliefweb.int — SOS Children's Villages reports on Baidoa's triple crisis](<https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/baidoas-triple-crisis-conflict-drought-and-threat-el-nino>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-reliefweb-int`)

### Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)

- Role: Humanitarian medical actor supporting Bay Regional Hospital in collaboration with the Ministry of Health

- Confidence: high

- Position: Reported the 2026-08-17 clashes in and around Baidoa.

- Supporter framing: No supporter framing documented in the sources reviewed.

- Opposing account: No opposing account documented in the sources reviewed.

- Independent assessment: No independent assessment documented in the sources reviewed.

**Source trail:** [prezly.msf.org.uk — MSF statement: 71 wounded arrive at Bay Regional Hospital after Baidoa clashes](<https://prezly.msf.org.uk/statement-clashes-in-baidoa-and-wounded-arriving-at-msf-supported-hospital>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-prezly-msf-org-uk`)

## Claims and evidence

### Armed clashes erupted in and around Baidoa on 2026-08-17 between federal forces and fighters loyal to former South West State President Laftagareen.

- Claimant: Médecins Sans Frontières

- Evidence status: confirmed

- Counterclaim: No counterclaim documented in the sources reviewed.

- Independent assessment: No independent assessment documented in the sources reviewed.

**Source trail:** [prezly.msf.org.uk — MSF statement: 71 wounded arrive at Bay Regional Hospital after Baidoa clashes](<https://prezly.msf.org.uk/statement-clashes-in-baidoa-and-wounded-arriving-at-msf-supported-hospital>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-prezly-msf-org-uk`)

### A health facility in Baidoa, Baidoa District Hospital, supported by SOS Children's Villages, was severely damaged in the fighting, and a health worker was killed.

- Claimant: UNICEF and SOS Children's Villages International

- Evidence status: confirmed

- Counterclaim: No counterclaim documented in the sources reviewed.

- Independent assessment: No independent assessment documented in the sources reviewed.

**Source trail:** [unicef.org — UNICEF statement: Children killed and injured in Baidoa clashes](<https://www.unicef.org/somalia/press-releases/statement>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-unicef-org`); [reliefweb.int — SOS Children's Villages reports on Baidoa's triple crisis](<https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/baidoas-triple-crisis-conflict-drought-and-threat-el-nino>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-reliefweb-int`)

### Opposition forces loyal to Laftagareen captured Buur Hakaba on 2026-10-15 and took more than 200 soldiers prisoner.

- Claimant: ACLED

- Evidence status: likely

- Counterclaim: No counterclaim documented in the sources reviewed.

- Independent assessment: No independent assessment documented in the sources reviewed.

**Source trail:** [acleddata.com — ACLED maps the contest for Somalia's South West state](<https://acleddata.com/expert-comment/whats-behind-somalias-territorial-control-grapple>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-acleddata-com`)

### Airstrikes were reported during the Baidoa clashes, and the Laftagareen camp attributes them to Turkish aircraft, which is unverified.

- Claimant: Laftagareen camp

- Evidence status: likely

- Counterclaim: The attribution to Turkish aircraft is unverified; no independent confirmation is documented.

- Independent assessment: No independent assessment documented in the sources reviewed.

**Source trail:** [reliefweb.int — SOS Children's Villages reports on Baidoa's triple crisis](<https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/baidoas-triple-crisis-conflict-drought-and-threat-el-nino>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-reliefweb-int`); [geeskafreedomcentre.org — Geeska Freedom Centre Statement on Third Round of Fighting in Baidoa](<https://geeskafreedomcentre.org/en/baidoa-all-parties-must-protect-civilians-and-health-care-workers-as-third-round-of-fighting-hits-city/>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-geeskafreedomcentre-org`)

## Language record

### Fie Mohammed

- Role: MSF Country Representative in Somalia

- Context: MSF Country Representative describes casualties at Bay Regional hospital on the morning of 17 August.

Quotation text is available in the web edition and the cited original source; it is not republished in this machine-readable edition.

**Source:** [prezly.msf.org.uk — MSF statement: 71 wounded arrive at Bay Regional Hospital after Baidoa clashes](<https://prezly.msf.org.uk/statement-clashes-in-baidoa-and-wounded-arriving-at-msf-supported-hospital>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-prezly-msf-org-uk`)

## Timeline

### 2026-03-30 — Somali federal forces take control of Baidoa and oust South West State president

- Event type: conflict\_start

- Confidence: high

Somali federal forces took control of Baidoa on 2026-03-30, and South West State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen resigned or was ousted, according to the International Crisis Group.

**Source trail:** [crisisgroup.org — Crisis Group Analyst's Notebook on the Ouster of Southwest State's Leader](<https://www.crisisgroup.org/anb/africa/somalia/somali-government-topples-state-leader-electoral-dispute-escalates>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-crisisgroup-org`)

### 2026-08-17 — Armed clashes erupt in Baidoa between federal forces and Laftagareen loyalists

- Event type: conflict\_escalation

- Confidence: medium

Armed clashes erupted in and around Baidoa on 2026-08-17 between federal forces and fighters loyal to former South West State President Laftagareen, according to Médecins Sans Frontières.

**Source trail:** [prezly.msf.org.uk — MSF statement: 71 wounded arrive at Bay Regional Hospital after Baidoa clashes](<https://prezly.msf.org.uk/statement-clashes-in-baidoa-and-wounded-arriving-at-msf-supported-hospital>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-prezly-msf-org-uk`)

### 2026-09-03 — Laftagareen-aligned forces attack Baidoa and are repelled

- Event type: conflict\_escalation

- Confidence: high

Forces loyal to Laftagareen attacked Baidoa on 2026-09-03, triggering clashes with federal and South West State forces; the government said the attack was repelled.

**Source trail:** [apnews.com — AP News: Fighting erupts in southwestern Somalia between government and militias](<https://apnews.com/article/somalia-baidoa-shabab-clashes-e9b1c90531fe74768a3dd3378ec55d1d>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-apnews-com`)

### 2026-10-15 — Opposition forces capture Buur Hakaba and take prisoners

- Event type: conflict\_escalation

- Confidence: medium

Opposition forces loyal to Laftagareen captured Buur Hakaba on 2026-10-15 and took more than 200 soldiers prisoner, according to ACLED.

**Source trail:** [acleddata.com — ACLED maps the contest for Somalia's South West state](<https://acleddata.com/expert-comment/whats-behind-somalias-territorial-control-grapple>) (`src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-acleddata-com`)

## Visual essay

### Gallery image 01

#### Visual provenance

- Caption: AMISOM Public Information photograph taken in Buur Hakba, Somalia, on 27 February 2013.

- Alt text: AMISOM photograph taken in Buur Hakba, Somalia, on 27 February 2013.

- Credit: AMISOM Public Information

- Rights / license: CC0

- Asset: [View image](<https://totallyfine.foundation/visuals/dossiers/baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026/gallery-2-baidoa-renewed-fight-2026.jpg>)

- Original / provenance: [Open source](<https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2013_02_27_Buur-Hakba_l_(8551136192).jpg>)

### Gallery image 02

#### Visual provenance

- Caption: NASA MODIS satellite image showing flooding along the Shabelle River in Somalia.

- Alt text: NASA MODIS satellite image showing flooding along the Shabelle River in Somalia.

- Credit: MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC

- Rights / license: Public domain

- Asset: [View image](<https://totallyfine.foundation/visuals/dossiers/baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026/gallery-3-baidoa-renewed-fight-2026.jpg>)

- Original / provenance: [Open source](<https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flooding_along_the_Shabelle_River,_Somalia_(MODIS).jpg>)

## Linked visual references

### Fighting erupts in southwestern Somalia between government and militias

- Photographer: AP staff

- Publisher: AP News

- Recognition: Core breaking-news report for this crisis.

- Why it matters: Independent wire reporting on the Baidoa clashes and displacement that underpins the dossier's competing-accounts section.

- Original: [Open reference](<https://apnews.com/article/somalia-baidoa-shabab-clashes-e9b1c90531fe74768a3dd3378ec55d1d>)

### What's behind Somalia's territorial control grapple

- Photographer: ACLED data team

- Publisher: ACLED

- Recognition: Standing conflict-mapping reference for the South West state contest.

- Why it matters: Maps the territorial contest in South West state and contextualizes the Baidoa fighting.

- Original: [Open reference](<https://acleddata.com/expert-comment/whats-behind-somalias-territorial-control-grapple>)

## Media desk

### 2015 02 Baidoa Hospital-8

- Publisher: AMISOM Public Information

- Media type: photo

- Rights mode: direct\_image

- Placement: Hospital damage and displacement

- Caption: AMISOM Public Information photograph taken at Baidoa Hospital in February 2015.

- Why it matters: The dossier reports that renewed clashes damaged a hospital and that Bay Regional Hospital received 71 wounded people on 17 August.

The dossier records that 71 wounded people arrived at Bay Regional hospital on 17 August, with four deaths including one young woman. Two Baidoa hospitals recorded 11 deaths and 86 injuries. This 2015 file photograph from Baidoa Hospital illustrates the hospital setting central to the casualty reports.

- Original: [Open media record](<https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2015_02_Baidoa_Hospital-8_(16399800046).jpg>)

#### Visual provenance

- Caption: AMISOM Public Information photograph taken at Baidoa Hospital in February 2015.

- Alt text: AMISOM Public Information photograph taken at Baidoa Hospital in February 2015.

- Credit: AMISOM Public Information

- Rights / license: CC0

- Asset: [View image](<https://totallyfine.foundation/visuals/dossiers/baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026/media-3-baidoa-renewed-fight-2026.jpg>)

- Original / provenance: [Open source](<https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2015_02_Baidoa_Hospital-8_(16399800046).jpg>)

### UNHCR flash report: two Baidoa hospitals reportedly record 11 deaths and 86 injuries

- Publisher: UNHCR

- Media type: report\_pdf

- Rights mode: linked\_reference\_only

- Placement: Competing accounts: deaths, airstrikes, and Al-Shabaab

- Caption: UNHCR flash report on casualties and displacement from the renewed fighting in Baidoa.

- Why it matters: Provides the casualty and displacement figures used to anchor the dossier's hospital and displacement sections.

The dossier says more than 1,800 civilians were displaced by renewed clashes, and two Baidoa hospitals recorded 11 deaths and 86 injuries. Bay Regional hospital received 71 wounded people on 17 August, including four deaths. UNHCR's flash report is the primary humanitarian data source for those figures.

- Original: [Open media record](<https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/124371>)

### OCHA flash update: floods hit Baidoa District at the start of the Deyr rains

- Publisher: UN OCHA

- Media type: report\_pdf

- Rights mode: linked\_reference\_only

- Placement: Drought, El Niño flooding, and the IPC Phase 5 projection

- Caption: UN OCHA flash update on flooding in Baidoa District at the beginning of the Deyr rains.

- Why it matters: Connects the forecast El Niño flooding to an actual flood event in Baidoa District, underpinning the food-insecurity projection.

The dossier notes that nearly 26,000 displaced people in Baidoa are projected to face Catastrophic hunger in the October-December projection period. FAO warns of a triple threat from drought, Middle East conflict and predicted El Niño flooding. OCHA's flash update records that floods hit Baidoa District at the start of the Deyr rains, compounding the crisis.

- Original: [Open media record](<https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/somalia/somalia-deyr-rainy-season-2023-flash-update-no-1-floods-south-west-state-7-october-2023>)

## Source readings

### Two Baidoa hospitals reportedly record 11 deaths and 86 injuries as 934 households reportedly flee

- Registry ID: `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-data-unhcr-org`

- Publisher: data.unhcr.org

- Source type: primary\_document

- Registry title: UNHCR flash report: two Baidoa hospitals reportedly record 11 deaths and 86 injuries, and 934 households reportedly flee

- Editorial note: A UNHCR flash update documenting reported casualties, damage and displacement from renewed clashes in Baidoa; figures are reported and may be partial.

- Original: [Open source](<https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/124371>)

A UNHCR flash report says Bay Regional Hospital and Bayhaw Hospital reportedly recorded 11 deaths and 86 injuries, while an estimated 5,604 people reportedly fled their homes.

The UNHCR flash report covers renewed clashes in Baidoa and their immediate impact. Bay Regional Hospital and Bayhaw Hospital reportedly recorded 11 deaths and 86 injuries, including eight deaths reportedly caused by stray bullets near RP Hotel. Damage was reported to residential areas, IDP settlements, farmland, public and institutional buildings, including Southwest University, RP Hotel, two mosques, and three primary and secondary schools.

Around 934 households, comprising an estimated 5,604 individuals, reportedly fled their homes and displacement sites in the Wadajir and Berdale neighbourhoods. Others fled to Diinsoor, Qansaxdhere, Burhakaba, Hudur, and Wajid, while displaced families sought refuge in Berdale, Isha, and Wadajir villages within Baidoa, indicating that the displacement remained within the town.

The report describes this as the second major outbreak of violence in Baidoa in less than two weeks. Recurring clashes disrupted livelihoods and essential services, restricted civilian movement, and increased concerns about further insecurity and displacement, while damage to shelters reduced access to safe housing for families already displaced.

#### Takeaways

- UNHCR reports 11 deaths and 86 injuries recorded at two Baidoa hospitals, with eight deaths attributed to stray bullets near RP Hotel.

- An estimated 5,604 individuals, or 934 households, reportedly fled the Wadajir and Berdale neighbourhoods; displaced families sought refuge in villages within Baidoa.

- Schools, mosques, a university and shelters reportedly sustained damage; damage to shelters further reduced access to safe housing.

- The update marks the second major outbreak of violence in Baidoa in under two weeks.

### UNICEF: Children are bearing the heaviest burden of violence in Baidoa

- Registry ID: `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-unicef-org`

- Publisher: unicef.org

- Source type: official\_position

- Registry title: UNICEF statement: Children killed and injured in Baidoa clashes

- Editorial note: Official statement by UNICEF Representative in Somalia Sandra Lattouf, calling for protection of children and health facilities after violence in Baidoa.

- Original: [Open source](<https://www.unicef.org/somalia/press-releases/statement>)

UNICEF reports that children have been killed and injured in recent clashes in Baidoa, South West State, and that a health facility has been damaged.

This is a statement by UNICEF Representative in Somalia Sandra Lattouf on the impact of recent violence in Baidoa, South West State. It says UNICEF is alarmed by reports that children have been killed and injured in the clashes, and that a health facility has been damaged.

The statement warns that insecurity is putting children's lives at risk and limiting their access to health care and other essential services. It notes many families are already facing displacement, food insecurity and high levels of child malnutrition.

UNICEF calls on all parties to protect children from harm, ensure the protection of schools and health facilities, and allow safe and unhindered humanitarian access. The statement stresses that every child has the right to be safe and protected from violence.

#### Takeaways

- UNICEF reports that children have been killed and injured in recent clashes in Baidoa and that a health facility has been damaged.

- Insecurity is limiting children's access to health care and essential services amid displacement, food insecurity and high child malnutrition.

- UNICEF calls for protection of children, schools and health facilities, and for safe humanitarian access.

### MSF-supported Bay Regional Hospital receives 71 wounded in Baidoa clashes

- Registry ID: `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-prezly-msf-org-uk`

- Publisher: prezly.msf.org.uk

- Source type: humanitarian

- Published: 2026-08-17

- Registry title: MSF statement: 71 wounded arrive at Bay Regional Hospital after Baidoa clashes

- Editorial note: A Médecins Sans Frontières statement from 17 August 2026 describing casualties at its supported hospital in Baidoa and the strain on health services.

- Original: [Open source](<https://prezly.msf.org.uk/statement-clashes-in-baidoa-and-wounded-arriving-at-msf-supported-hospital>)

On the morning of 17 August, armed clashes erupted in Baidoa; MSF teams at Bay Regional Hospital recorded 71 wounded and four deaths.

In a statement dated 17 August 2026, MSF Country Representative in Somalia Fie Mohammed said armed clashes erupted in and around Baidoa town, South West state, on the morning of that day. At Bay Regional Hospital, where MSF works with the Ministry of Health, teams received 71 wounded people, including women and children.

Four deaths were recorded, including one young woman. The statement said patients continued to arrive and figures were expected to rise. It noted that Baidoa hosts more than half a million people displaced by conflict, drought and insecurity, many of whom depend on the town's already limited health services.

MSF said those services are stretched beyond capacity, and each new cycle of violence places further pressure on the health system. It called for civilians, health facilities and medical staff to be protected, and for wounded people to be able to reach medical care safely. MSF supports emergency, maternity, paediatrics, nutrition and outpatient departments at the hospital.

#### Takeaways

- MSF recorded 71 wounded, including women and children, at Bay Regional Hospital after 17 August clashes; four deaths were recorded.

- Baidoa hosts more than half a million displaced people who depend on limited health services already stretched beyond capacity.

- MSF called for protection of civilians, health facilities and medical staff and safe access to care.

### Government forces and Laftagareen-aligned militia clash on Baidoa's outskirts

- Registry ID: `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-apnews-com`

- Publisher: apnews.com

- Source type: news

- Registry title: AP News: Fighting erupts in southwestern Somalia between government and militias

- Editorial note: A short AP News report describing clashes on the outskirts of Baidoa between government forces and militia aligned with former South West state President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen.

- Original: [Open source](<https://apnews.com/article/somalia-baidoa-shabab-clashes-e9b1c90531fe74768a3dd3378ec55d1d>)

Fighting erupted early Thursday in southwestern Somalia, with heavy gunfire reported and civilians fleeing some neighborhoods.

This AP News report says fighting erupted early Thursday between Somali government forces and militia aligned with former South West state President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen on the outskirts of Baidoa.

Heavy gunfire was reported and civilians fled some neighborhoods. The report includes a photo taken with a smartphone showing locals carrying the body of a person killed in fighting between government troops and militias.

#### Takeaways

- Fighting erupted early Thursday on the outskirts of Baidoa between Somali government forces and militia aligned with former South West state President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen.

- Heavy gunfire was reported and civilians fled some neighborhoods.

- The AP report includes a photo showing locals carrying a body of a person killed in the fighting.

### FAO: drought, Middle East conflict and predicted El Niño flooding threaten Somalia's food security

- Registry ID: `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-fao-org`

- Publisher: fao.org

- Source type: official\_position

- Registry title: FAO warns of a triple threat to Somalia's food security

- Editorial note: FAO official position piece dated 30 April 2026; its assessment is Somalia-wide and qualitative, with no Baidoa-specific figures.

- Original: [Open source](<https://www.fao.org/somalia/news/details/somalia-faces-a-triple-threat-of-drought--middle-east-conflict-and-predicted-el-ni%C3%B1o-flooding--fao-warns/en>)

The Food and Agriculture Organization warns that Somalia faces threefold dangers and that there is no room for complacency in ensuring food security.

The Food and Agriculture Organization's Somalia page, dated 30 April 2026, warns that Somalia faces a triple threat of drought, Middle East conflict and predicted El Niño flooding.

It states that the humanitarian crisis confronting Somalia has not abated, and that the conflict in the Middle East has triggered rapidly rising food and water prices in the country, eroding household purchasing power.

The warning also points to prolonged drought and forecast El Niño floods later this year as additional pressures on food security.

#### Takeaways

- FAO warns of three simultaneous threats: drought, Middle East conflict and predicted El Niño flooding.

- Rising food and water prices linked to the Middle East conflict are eroding household purchasing power.

- The 30 April 2026 warning addresses Somalia-wide food security rather than Baidoa specifically.

### Nearly 107,000 people affected by heavy rains and flash floods in Baidoa District

- Registry ID: `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-unocha-org`

- Publisher: unocha.org

- Source type: humanitarian

- Registry title: OCHA flash update: floods hit Baidoa District at the start of the Deyr rains

- Editorial note: OCHA humanitarian flash update No. 1, dated 7 October 2023, on floods in South West State; figures cover Baidoa District from a rapid assessment on 6 October.

- Original: [Open source](<https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/somalia/somalia-deyr-rainy-season-2023-flash-update-no-1-floods-south-west-state-7-october-2023>)

An OCHA flash update reports that the 4 October floods inundated makeshift shelters hosting over 86,700 displaced people in Baidoa City.

The OCHA flash update "Somalia: Deyr rainy season 2023 Flash Update No. 1", dated 7 October 2023, reports that state and humanitarian partners estimate nearly 107,000 people, or 17,831 families, were affected by heavy rains and flash floods on 4 October in Baidoa District, Bay Region, South West State of Somalia.

Several houses were reportedly inundated, including makeshift shelters hosting over 86,700 internally displaced people in 136 displacement sites in Baidoa City; critical needs include shelter, food, clean safe water, hygiene and sanitation facilities, and medical assistance.

The rains mark the beginning of the Deyr, or October to December, rainy season, expected to have above-normal rains and increased flooding due to El Niño conditions; the affected figure comes from a rapid assessment conducted on 6 October by the state Ministry of Humanitarian and Disaster Management and Camp Coordination and Camp Management subCluster partners.

#### Takeaways

- OCHA reports nearly 107,000 people affected by the 4 October floods in Baidoa District.

- Over 86,700 internally displaced people in 136 Baidoa City displacement sites had their shelters reportedly inundated.

- The update links the flooding to the start of the Deyr season and expected above-normal rains under El Niño conditions.

### Renewed fighting in Baidoa deepens a crisis already marked by drought and El Niño flood risk

- Registry ID: `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-reliefweb-int`

- Publisher: reliefweb.int

- Source type: humanitarian

- Published: 2026-10-29

- Registry title: SOS Children's Villages reports on Baidoa's triple crisis

- Editorial note: ReliefWeb posting of an SOS Children's Villages International report dated 29 October 2026; figures cover Baidoa city, its IDP population and the impact of renewed fighting.

- Original: [Open source](<https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/baidoas-triple-crisis-conflict-drought-and-threat-el-nino>)

In a city of an estimated 1.6 million people, where nearly half were internally displaced, clashes are forcing more families from their homes.

According to the SOS Children's Villages International report posted on ReliefWeb on 29 October 2026, Baidoa, the capital of Bay region and the interim capital of Southwest State, lies about 250 km northwest of Mogadishu and hosts Somalia's second-largest concentration of internally displaced persons, behind only Mogadishu.

The report estimates Baidoa's population at 1.6 million, with nearly half already internally displaced; renewed fighting between federal forces and forces aligned with the former Southwest State administration has pushed thousands of civilians, many previously displaced, from their homes to the outskirts, neighbouring districts and Mogadishu.

Clashes and reported airstrikes resulted in civilian casualties and damage to residential areas, IDP settlements, farmland, and public and institutional buildings, disrupting access to shelter and essential services; Baidoa District Hospital, supported by SOS Children's Villages, sustained significant damage, and one community health worker died from injuries from the explosion.

#### Takeaways

- Baidoa's population is estimated at 1.6 million, with nearly half internally displaced.

- The renewed fighting has displaced thousands of civilians, many previously displaced, to the outskirts, neighbouring districts and Mogadishu.

- Reported airstrikes and clashes damaged homes, IDP settlements, farmland, public buildings and Baidoa District Hospital, where a community health worker was killed.

### Opposition forces move to surround Baidoa, seizing Buur Hakaba

- Registry ID: `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-acleddata-com`

- Publisher: acleddata.com

- Source type: research

- Registry title: ACLED maps the contest for Somalia's South West state

- Editorial note: ACLED research analysis of territorial control in Somalia's South West; incident details run through 17 October 2026.

- Original: [Open source](<https://acleddata.com/expert-comment/whats-behind-somalias-territorial-control-grapple>)

ACLED reports the Laftagareen-loyal Opposition-SWSPF captured Buur Hakaba, about 64 km from Baidoa, taking more than 200 soldiers prisoner.

ACLED's analysis of Somalia's territorial control contest describes the Opposition Southwest State Special Police Forces, loyal to Laftagareen, capitalizing on local resistance against federal interference in the Southwest Administration after failing to capture the state administration centre and capital, Baidoa.

It reports that on 15 October the Opposition-SWSPF captured Buur Hakaba, an important trade route about 64 kilometres from Baidoa on the main road between Baidoa and Mogadishu, after heavy clashes, taking more than 200 soldiers prisoner.

The analysis also records resistance in Lower Shabelle: on 17 October 2026, Dir-Biyamal clan militia allied with the Southeast administration ambushed SNA-Birmad and South West district officials in the Ayuub area of Marka town, killing a district official and two clan militia members and injuring three soldiers; it warns the government and opposition are preparing for a costly confrontation that could bring displacement and protracted inter-clan conflict.

#### Takeaways

- The Opposition-SWSPF, loyal to Laftagareen, failed to capture Baidoa but adjusted to surround and isolate the city by taking surrounding Bay region districts.

- Buur Hakaba, about 64 km from Baidoa on the main road to Mogadishu, fell to opposition forces on 15 October, with more than 200 soldiers taken prisoner.

- On 17 October 2026, a clan militia ambush in Marka town killed a district official and two clan militia members and injured three soldiers.

### Federal forces enter Baidoa and oust regional president Abdiaziz Lafta-Gareen on 30 March

- Registry ID: `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-crisisgroup-org`

- Publisher: crisisgroup.org

- Source type: research

- Registry title: Crisis Group Analyst's Notebook on the Ouster of Southwest State's Leader

- Editorial note: An International Crisis Group analyst's notebook by Omar Mahmood, Senior Analyst for Somalia and the Horn of Africa, published 31 March 2026; it assesses the 30 March federal entry into Baidoa and the escalating electoral dispute, with reporting up to that date.

- Original: [Open source](<https://www.crisisgroup.org/anb/africa/somalia/somali-government-topples-state-leader-electoral-dispute-escalates>)

Crisis Group's Omar Mahmood reviews the standoff over elections in Southwest State after federal troops took Baidoa, the largest city in the state.

On 30 March, Somali federal forces entered Baidoa, the largest city in the country's Southwest state, and ousted regional president Abdiaziz Lafta-Gareen, according to this Crisis Group analyst's notebook by Omar Mahmood, Senior Analyst for Somalia and the Horn of Africa, published 31 March 2026.

The incursion followed weeks of escalating tensions between the state's leader and Mogadishu over elections due this year. In late March, Lafta-Gareen defied Mogadishu's poll plans and organised his own snap re-election.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud ordered military reinforcements to Buur Hakaba, a town 65km from Baidoa where militias opposed to Lafta-Gareen had been mobilising. Those forces left Buur Hakaba on 29 March, battled some Al-Shabaab militants along the way, and entered Baidoa the next day.

Most of Lafta-Gareen's forces chose to stand down instead of fighting, quashing fears of large-scale violence in the city.

#### Takeaways

- Federal forces entered Baidoa on 30 March and ousted regional president Abdiaziz Lafta-Gareen.

- The move followed Lafta-Gareen's snap re-election in defiance of Mogadishu's poll plans.

- Reinforcements ordered by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud moved from Buur Hakaba, 65km away, on 29 March.

- Most of Lafta-Gareen's forces stood down, avoiding large-scale violence at that point.

### Geeska Freedom Centre records 234 civilian casualties in Baidoa since 17 August

- Registry ID: `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-geeskafreedomcentre-org`

- Publisher: geeskafreedomcentre.org

- Source type: human\_rights

- Registry title: Geeska Freedom Centre Statement on Third Round of Fighting in Baidoa

- Editorial note: A human rights statement by the Geeska Freedom Centre on the third round of fighting in Baidoa; it records 234 civilian casualties since 17 August and calls for protection of civilians and health workers.

- Original: [Open source](<https://geeskafreedomcentre.org/en/baidoa-all-parties-must-protect-civilians-and-health-care-workers-as-third-round-of-fighting-hits-city/>)

The human rights group calls on all parties to protect civilians and health workers as a third round of fighting hits the city, and urges disclosure of air support roles.

The Geeska Freedom Centre (GFC) condemns violence that has harmed civilians in Baidoa, the provisional capital of South West State, Somalia, and expresses grave concern that the international community has not used its influence to support dialogue to stop the conflict.

Since March this year, Baidoa has witnessed a disputed change in administration: Federal Government forces carried out a military operation to remove South West State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed 'Laftagareen', and former Speaker of Parliament Adan Mohamed Nur 'Madoobe' was subsequently elected as the new regional leader following an election organized by the Federal Government.

GFC has received reports of aerial strikes which the Laftagareen administration attributes to Turkey aircraft; GFC has not been able to independently verify these reports, and it calls on the Somali Federal Government and any foreign partner providing air support to disclose their role and comply with international humanitarian law.

About 234 civilian casualties have been recorded in Baidoa since 17 August, including 49 women and 27 children, according to GFC records.

#### Takeaways

- GFC records about 234 civilian casualties in Baidoa since 17 August, including 49 women and 27 children.

- The centre has received reports of aerial strikes attributed to Turkish aircraft by the Laftagareen administration but could not independently verify them.

- GFC calls on all parties to protect civilians and health care workers, and on air support providers to disclose their role and respect international humanitarian law.

- The statement links ongoing heavy fighting to a disputed change in administration since March, when federal forces removed President Laftagareen.

### Deyr rains start early in Bay, Gedo and Mudug; Baidoa records 73.5 mm in three days

- Registry ID: `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-faoswalim-org`

- Publisher: faoswalim.org

- Source type: primary\_document

- Registry title: FAO SWALIM Weekly Weather Forecast for 07–13 October 2026

- Editorial note: A primary FAO Somali Water and Land Information Management forecast valid 07–13 Oct 2026, with observed rainfall, river levels and drought conditions; figures are station-specific for the review period.

- Original: [Open source](<https://faoswalim.org/resources/site_files/Somalia_Rainfall_Forecast_07_Oct_2026_0.pdf>)

The FAO SWALIM weekly forecast for 07–13 October 2026 reviews uneven rainfall, rising river levels and worsening drought in north-west Somalia.

The Somali Water and Land Information Management weekly weather forecast, valid from 07 to 13 October 2026, reports that Deyr rains started early in parts of Gedo, Bay and Mudug, with Bardheere at 93 mm and Galkacyo at 50 mm exceeding their October normals within the first five days.

Rainfall remained highly uneven: rains extended from eastern Gedo through Bay, Bakool and Hiraan into central Somalia, while the Juba valley, Lower Juba and coastal Lower Shabelle remained largely dry.

Baidoa received 73.5 mm in three days, 54% of its October normal and 32% of Deyr; Buur Hakaba received 40.8 mm, 37% of October and 24% of Deyr. Jowhar rose sharply by 2.22 m to 4.70 m, only 0.30 m below its moderate flood-risk level, and Belet Weyne and Dollow also turned upward on 7 October after a few days of decline.

Water stress eased across much of central and south central Somalia but worsened in the north-west, with severe to extreme drought conditions along parts of the Awdal and Berbera coast.

#### Takeaways

- Baidoa recorded 73.5 mm of rain in three days, 54% of the October normal and 32% of Deyr.

- Deyr rains started early in parts of Gedo, Bay and Mudug; Bardheere and Galkacyo exceeded October normals within five days.

- Jowhar river rose 2.22 m to 4.70 m, 0.30 m below moderate flood-risk level; Belet Weyne and Dollow turned upward on 7 October.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions persisted along parts of the Awdal and Berbera coast in the north-west.

### OCHA 2025 HNRP: 4.4 million face high acute food insecurity; conflict drives 53% of 2024 displacement

- Registry ID: `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-unocha-org-2`

- Publisher: unocha.org

- Source type: official\_position

- Registry title: OCHA Somalia 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan

- Editorial note: An official OCHA plan document covering 2025 humanitarian needs; its figures are from 2024 and projections to 2025, including acute food insecurity, displacement and conflict drivers.

- Original: [Open source](<https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/somalia/somalia-2025-humanitarian-needs-and-response-plan-hnrp>)

The plan records 2024 displacement and food security figures, with drier conditions expected to persist into 2025 across northeastern, central and southern Somalia.

The Somalia 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) from OCHA states that drier-than-usual conditions, linked to La Niña, decreased local food production and availability, and are expected to persist into 2025, particularly impacting northeastern, central and southern Somalia.

Some 4.4 million people were facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC phase 3) and emergency levels (IPC phase 4) between October and December 2024, with approximately 1.6 million children under age 5 facing acute malnutrition between August 2024 and July 2025.

An estimated 3.5 million people in Somalia were displaced, tied to climatic shocks and conflict. New internal displacements dropped by 85 per cent from their 2023 record level, with 477,000 people internally displaced between January and November 2024.

Conflict was the main driver of new internal displacements in 2024, accounting for 53 per cent of 477,000 displacements between January and November 2024; only 29 per cent were linked to climatic factors, compared with 75 per cent in 2023. The districts most affected by conflict-related displacement included Luuq (Gedo), Diinsoor (Bay), Xarardheere (Muduq), Jamaame (Lower Juba), and Buuhoodle (Togdheer), largely related to escalating inter-clan fighting.

#### Takeaways

- Between October and December 2024, 4.4 million people faced IPC phase 3 or 4 acute food insecurity.

- Conflict accounted for 53 per cent of 477,000 new internal displacements between January and November 2024, while climatic factors accounted for 29 per cent.

- Drier-than-usual conditions were expected to persist into 2025 in northeastern, central and southern Somalia.

- The districts most affected by conflict-related displacement included Luuq, Diinsoor, Xarardheere, Jamaame and Buuhoodle.

## Analysis shelf

### What's behind Somalia's territorial control grapple?

- Publisher: acleddata.com

- Type: report

- Why it matters: Provides data-driven analysis of the federal-state standoff and the Opposition-SWSPF dynamics behind the Baidoa fighting.

- Position note: ACLED's conflict research perspective; covers territorial control and armed group dynamics, not humanitarian casualty figures.

- Original: [Open source](<https://acleddata.com/expert-comment/whats-behind-somalias-territorial-control-grapple>)

### Somali Government Topples State Leader as Electoral Dispute Escalates

- Publisher: crisisgroup.org

- Type: report

- Why it matters: Offers expert assessment of the political and electoral dispute that triggered the federal intervention in Baidoa.

- Position note: International Crisis Group analyst's perspective; focuses on the standoff over polls, not field-level violence or displacement.

- Original: [Open source](<https://www.crisisgroup.org/anb/africa/somalia/somali-government-topples-state-leader-electoral-dispute-escalates>)

### Somalia: Baidoa's triple crisis: Conflict, drought and the threat of El Niño

- Publisher: reliefweb.int

- Type: report

- Why it matters: Documents the overlapping conflict, drought, and El Niño threats facing Baidoa and includes population and displacement estimates.

- Position note: SOS Children's Villages International humanitarian perspective; covers the crisis context, not military operational details.

- Original: [Open source](<https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/baidoas-triple-crisis-conflict-drought-and-threat-el-nino>)

## Media shelf

### Renewed fighting erupts in Somalia's Baidoa

- Publisher: apnews.com

- Type: media

- Why it matters: Provides contemporaneous news reporting on the outbreak of fighting between government forces and militia aligned with Laftagareen.

- Position note: Linked reference, not hosted material; AP News news report.

- Original: [Open source](<https://apnews.com/article/somalia-baidoa-shabab-clashes-e9b1c90531fe74768a3dd3378ec55d1d>)

## Open questions

- How many people are displaced in Baidoa after the renewed clashes, when SOS Children's Villages estimates the city's population at 1.6 million and Save the Children cites about 800,000 displaced people without a date?

- Who carried out the airstrikes reported during the Baidoa clashes, given the Laftagareen camp attributes them to Turkish aircraft and this is unverified?

- Did Al-Shabaab participate in the attacks on Baidoa alongside Laftagareen-aligned forces, given that participation is disputed?

- How many people were killed in the fighting, when the available counts cover a health worker killed at Baidoa District Hospital, about 30 attackers killed according to the defence ministry, and two soldiers killed according to Somali army commander Abdullahi Hassan?

- Is the 28 September outbreak of fighting in and around Baidoa independently confirmed?

- What happened to the more than 200 soldiers whom ACLED reports were taken prisoner at Buur Hakaba on 15 October?

## Source registry

- `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-data-unhcr-org` — [data.unhcr.org — UNHCR flash report: two Baidoa hospitals reportedly record 11 deaths and 86 injuries, and 934 households reportedly flee](<https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/124371>); primary\_document; date not supplied
- `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-unicef-org` — [unicef.org — UNICEF statement: Children killed and injured in Baidoa clashes](<https://www.unicef.org/somalia/press-releases/statement>); official\_position; date not supplied
- `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-prezly-msf-org-uk` — [prezly.msf.org.uk — MSF statement: 71 wounded arrive at Bay Regional Hospital after Baidoa clashes](<https://prezly.msf.org.uk/statement-clashes-in-baidoa-and-wounded-arriving-at-msf-supported-hospital>); humanitarian; 2026-08-17
- `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-apnews-com` — [apnews.com — AP News: Fighting erupts in southwestern Somalia between government and militias](<https://apnews.com/article/somalia-baidoa-shabab-clashes-e9b1c90531fe74768a3dd3378ec55d1d>); news; date not supplied
- `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-fao-org` — [fao.org — FAO warns of a triple threat to Somalia's food security](<https://www.fao.org/somalia/news/details/somalia-faces-a-triple-threat-of-drought--middle-east-conflict-and-predicted-el-ni%C3%B1o-flooding--fao-warns/en>); official\_position; date not supplied
- `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-unocha-org` — [unocha.org — OCHA flash update: floods hit Baidoa District at the start of the Deyr rains](<https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/somalia/somalia-deyr-rainy-season-2023-flash-update-no-1-floods-south-west-state-7-october-2023>); humanitarian; date not supplied
- `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-reliefweb-int` — [reliefweb.int — SOS Children's Villages reports on Baidoa's triple crisis](<https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/baidoas-triple-crisis-conflict-drought-and-threat-el-nino>); humanitarian; 2026-10-29
- `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-acleddata-com` — [acleddata.com — ACLED maps the contest for Somalia's South West state](<https://acleddata.com/expert-comment/whats-behind-somalias-territorial-control-grapple>); research; date not supplied
- `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-crisisgroup-org` — [crisisgroup.org — Crisis Group Analyst's Notebook on the Ouster of Southwest State's Leader](<https://www.crisisgroup.org/anb/africa/somalia/somali-government-topples-state-leader-electoral-dispute-escalates>); research; date not supplied
- `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-geeskafreedomcentre-org` — [geeskafreedomcentre.org — Geeska Freedom Centre Statement on Third Round of Fighting in Baidoa](<https://geeskafreedomcentre.org/en/baidoa-all-parties-must-protect-civilians-and-health-care-workers-as-third-round-of-fighting-hits-city/>); human\_rights; date not supplied
- `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-faoswalim-org` — [faoswalim.org — FAO SWALIM Weekly Weather Forecast for 07–13 October 2026](<https://faoswalim.org/resources/site_files/Somalia_Rainfall_Forecast_07_Oct_2026_0.pdf>); primary\_document; date not supplied
- `src-baidoa-renewed-fighting-2026-unocha-org-2` — [unocha.org — OCHA Somalia 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan](<https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/somalia/somalia-2025-humanitarian-needs-and-response-plan-hnrp>); official\_position; date not supplied